Chapter written in The FUTURE of the Global Economy – Towards a Long Boom, published by OECD in 1999
“The probability that the world economy will experience a sustained period of significantly higher growth – referred to throughout this volume as a long boom – during the first quarter of the 21st century is low. The statistical odds, judging from past history, are against it. Over the past two centuries, with the exception of post-war spurts of rebuilding, world growth appears to have stayed within a narrow track of around 3% during most periods.”
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